PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

ND @ USC Over/Under is 50

Spreads were finally released Friday morning with a total of 50 for the Over/Under.  We would have to assume that this is indicative of USC quarterback  Matt Barkley being sidelined, even with Vegas currently having 92% of the action on the Over.  It looks as though ND’s offense has gained some respect with the gambling community the past couple weeks after putting up 28 and 27 respectively against Utah and Army.  We like the Over as well, and let’s not forget Mitch Mustain’s ability to get the ball in the air for USC as a quality backup.

ND gets the road upset in this one, 35-32, and ends the regular season on a high note.  GO IRISH!
PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

ND vs Army at Yankee Stadium Over/Under total is 50

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

Notre Dame vs Utah Over/Under is 54

At first glance, the 54 total looks like an easy pick considering Utah’s offense and the lack of defense for Notre Dame.  Although Utah puts up 41 a game, this could be a game where ND doesn’t get much done, similar to Utah themselves last week against TCU.

With all the injuries on offense, ND will be relying on the pass heavily as it is doubtful Cierra Wood comes in with a big game replacing Armando Allen.  We still like the Over, and expect the Irish to put up a couple touchdowns late in the game to prevent a blowout, but we are starting to doubt ourselves!

Sticking with the points though, putting it all on the OVER!

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

Notre Dame vs Tulsa Over Under is 62.5

Another high point total for this week’s game.  Although it was Navy that mostly contributed to last week’s Over win, we are confident this week that the Irish will break the 40 point barrier this week much like the Western Michigan game.  Tulsa can score as well, and with ND’s defense showing very little resistance, they should be able to put up at least a few touchdowns.

Vegas money is 93% on the Over, and we can’t disagree with that this week.  We’re looking at a nearly defenseless game, and wouldn’t be surprised if it gets sloppy with costly turnovers, hopefully in Notre Dame’s favor.  Add in the motivation Kelly will instill in the team to make a statement before their bye week before the fun really begins with Utah and you have the makings of a very high scoring game.   Looking for the Over in this one to come in easily.

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

Over/Under is 50.5 for Notre Dame vs Navy at The Meadowlands

After last week’s offensive display against Western Michigan, it looks like ND’s offense can be everything we were hoping it was when the season started.  Although Navy’s defense is far better, and their offense tends to control time of possession, we like our chances of getting ahead early and Navy playing catch-up.

Turnover’s and costly penalties shouldn’t be an issue as these teams are generally well disciplined against each other.  Our only real concern is giving up the big plays as our defense has shown holes this year when going up against untraditional offenses (see Michigan results).  Should be a good game, and with this year’s offense putting up a few more points on the board, we’re looking at 28-24 for the Irish, the Over looks good to us!

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

The Over/Under for this weeks Notre Dame vs Western Michigan game has been set at 52.  Another relatively high total for an ND game as the Irish have gone over that total once this year in their OT loss at Michigan State.  Combined with the spread, it looks like Vegas wants this game to be 38-14 for Brian Kelly’s squad.

For reasons mentioned in previous write ups, this high of an over/under gives us concerns.  Sure, if we had confidence that we were going to get a full effort for 60 minutes we would feel very comfortable with ND putting up 38-48 points of their own in this one, but this has been a season of one-half games thus far and there is little to no reason this game will be any different.  For the Over to hit and ND to cover, we are basically looking at a blowout where the Irish are up 35-7 at halftime.  Although we’d love to be wrong, we just don’t think the team breaks their bad habit of playing down to level of a lesser opponent this week.

We’re sticking with ND 34, Western Michigan 13….and we’ll be happy with a 21 point victory and we’ll reap the winnings when the Under comes in!

Think we’re wrong?  Prove it!
PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

Over/Under for Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh is 49.5

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

After last week’s disappointing offensive showing in the second half, we can not even begin to explain how difficult it was to watch all of our Over bets come in as losers.   Looking like a sure thing at half-time, it seems as though the Irish offense was told to take the foot off the gas, coming 1 point away from the 45 point total we were looking for.

We don’t think this week will give them much of an opportunity to do so.  The 49.5 isn’t enough to keep us away from picking the over as Pitt only has the game against Miami that came in under 50, and ND has only wins against Purdue and BC under 50.  Purdue and BC certainly showed they are inept on the offensive side of the ball, while Pitt showed they weren’t able to score against the much quicker and physical Hurricane D.  They won’t have that problem this week against Notre Dame unfortunately.  We’re looking for the typical ND/Pitt shootout, scales tipping on ND’s side 37-34.

Best of Luck this week!

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

OVER / UNDER is "45"

This week Notre Dame will go back on the road after 3 very hard defeats.  The last one against Stanford was simply a blow out, but the other two they were in the game and had a chance until the end.

It very easily could be a (3-1) ND Team right now, but unfortunately we are a (1-3) team with a couple very “Decent” programs ahead of us.

A loss this week and the season is just about over!  Maybe we are too hopefully here at ND Pick’em, but we think the Irish will come out firing against BC and Brian Kelly is through with pathetic showings.  We don’t think this week will be  a “Stanford” type game.

We showed the same video in the “Cover” or Standard Pick’em section of the site for the same reason we are showing it in the Over/Under section of the site… and that is Intensity to win!  Urgency to win!

I hope the players are as motivated as Briank Kelly was above… and YES ND Pick’em thinks the Over is a sure thing this week…

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

Stanford comes into Notre Dame Stadium undefeated this year and has a shot at starting out 4-0 for the first time since 1986.  Stanford has not only been winning, they have been winning big!  The Cardinal is coming off a 68-24 victory over Wake Forest this past Saturday and have put up an average of 51.67 points per game.  As we have seen already this year the Irish’s defense is certainly nothing special and it won’t be an easy task to keep Stanford from marching up and down the field.

The Irish offense has put up and average of 31.6 points and they have given up an average of 20.4, but I think everyone expects these numbers to be quite a bit higher this week.  Stanford’s quarterback Andrew Luck, who went 17 for 23 for 207 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s blowout will need to be contained if the Irish are going to win this one!  I would have to think after coming off a very upsetting overtime loss to Michigan State the boys might not have as much excitement in them as they should.

It is certainly a possibility that the Irish will be a (1-3) team after Saturday, a start that makes Irish fans feel a huge amount of depression and sadness.  We don’t want to turn into the Chicago Cub Fans that have their favorite saying “Oh, wait until next year!”

PLACE THIS WEEK’S OVER / UNDER BET

Bets Closed Saturday 8:00pm EST

Michigan State vs Notre Dame, 8 PM E.S.T on ESPN

Michigan State vs Notre Dame [Over / Under] : 54

To boys in Vegas have the Total Points for Saturday Night’s game at Spartan Stadium at 54.  All of the Notre Dame games in 2010 have had an over under very close to this number.  When you take an Over / Under bet into consideration there are a few factors that can play a big role.  Perhaps the biggest factor is mother nature.  When the books in Vegas start a line out at a certain number they are doing so in hopes of “Splitting” the action.  For those of you who don’t know how Sports Books operate we will use this week’s Over / Under Write up as an example.

When taking a typical Sports Bet the person betting will have a spread or over / under with a price of [-110].  So if you player was going to bet on the Notre Dame Over this week with a price of -110, they would be risking $110 to win $100.  The extra 10% is what gives Vegas or “The House” the advantage.  So for a Las Vegas Bookmaker’s perspective it is extremely important to pick a “Spread” or “Over / Under Total” that is going to split the players action.  If the book takes bets all week with the Over / Under on the Michigan State vs Notre Dame game at 54 they are likely to get a decent amount of plays on each side.  Even though these Bookmakers are absolutely incredible with the lines they come out with, hardly any game is split perfect for any one book.  A perfect situation for the book would of course be $1 Million on the Michigan State vs Notre Dame Under and $1 Million on the Michigan State vs Notre Dame Over.  With a situation like this the book has no chance of losing money and approximately a 99% change of profiting $100k.  The worst thing with an Over / Under line that doesn’t have the “Half Point” or “The Hook”  for a Las Vegas Book with balanced action is the slim chance that the final score of the game will land exactly on 54 and no money is lost or won.  In this case the bet would be considered a “Push” and the player simply gets back whatever he risked on the game.  If the game goes over or under the 54 total the book will end up paying out $1 Million to the winners, but collect $1.1 Million from the losers.  Again while games are rarely balanced perfectly, they do a pretty darn good job at it.

So what to do this week, with a 54 Over at Michigan St?  Well that is completely up to you, but once in a while we feel strong enough about something to make our opinion know.  This week we are thinking the over for a few reasons:

1.) Sad to say, but don’t count on Notre Dame’s Defense limiting the Spartans too much.  They looked “O.K.” in week 1 against Purdue and certainly were not anything special against Michigan last week.

2.) Spread / Hurry up Offense will be in full effect from Kelly.  Anytime when you run a spread offense and your average huddle time is 5 seconds it is going to help with the possibility of scoring points while using very little clock.

3.) Michigan State’s Offense is going to bring everything they have at home in a Prime-time appearance against Notre Dame on ABC.  I don’t see them playing it safe or conservative.  They will do everything possible to blow them out.  When you play aggressive football mistakes can be made and we are hoping that ND will capitalize on these.  Some interceptions, fumbles, etc that could provide Dayne and his offense a short field!

Bets Closed Saturday 8:00pm EST